Position Overview:This role owns and leads the monthly collaborative volume forecasting process for the Glaceau and Hydration Business Unit, as well as weekly tracking and analyses (including root causes); tunes statistical models and collects inputs from cross-functional partners to arrive at ONE aligned volume forecast that drives the financial planning/reporting process.
Function Specific Activities:
- Tune statistical models generated in the forecasting platform as often as necessary (minimum weekly) to provide a clear starting point for cross-functional stakeholders to collaborate and align on.
- Project Total (Net of Stat +/- Puts & Calls) Unit Case volume for the short-, mid-, and long-term, using input from internal stakeholders, such as Brand, Sales, Franchise, Finance, Category Commercialization, and RGM (Revenue Growth Management) by leveraging stat modeling and value-add capabilities in the forecasting platform (e.g., Anaplan).
- Provide a clear POV on volume risks and opportunities based on an understanding of key inputs and objective assessment of the range of possible outcomes.
- Drive alignment through robust collaboration and analyses to provide the best demand signal for both financial forecast and supply chain planning for US Ops.
- Ensure databases and systems have accurate volumes for the various internal routines such as Weekly Volume Call, Monthly Rolling Estimate, and Annual Business Planning.
- Own the final volume forecast coming out of the monthly Forecast Alignment routines with clear assumption documentation and tracking.
- Drive the monthly Unit Case Forecast Alignment sessions with Brand, Finance, and RGM partners, with inputs from Franchise and Sales (NRS + AO) with the ultimate outcome of feeding the RE (Rolling Estimate) and supply chain planning processes.
- Provide clear insights and misses/beats to the BP (Business Plan), RE, and Aligned Forecast in order to continuously improve the process and forecast accuracy/attainment across the organization.
- Actively collaborate with Product Commercialization, Sales and Marketing to capture brand initiatives and campaigns driving incremental volume vs. statistical baseline.
- Drive accountability by updating Puts & Calls and Risks & Opportunities as often as necessary (minimum monthly) in order to have the latest assumptions and resulting volume in the RE.
- Analyze shipment and consumption/sell-through data to identify forecast variances and root causes to drive forecast process and accuracy improvement.
- Provide insights, volume risks and opportunities, and scenarios in order to drive aligned forecast for the downhill periods.
- Actively manage exceptions in the forecasting platform to identify and resolve high-error BPPs.
Continuous Improvement (Plan-Do-Check-Adjust Cycle)
- Track, analyze, and improve forecast performance by leveraging multiple data sources (shipments, orders, primary vs. secondary vs. consumption/sell-through sales, etc.).
- Track forecast attainment, bias, MAPE and WAPE to identify high-error exceptions and drive improvement through various methodologies.
- Improve stat forecasting model capabilities in Anaplan, as well as Dashboard and other capabilities by continuous learning, testing, and experimenting.
EDUCATION LEVEL REQUIRED
- Bachelor's degree or equivalent combination of experience and education
- 5+ years' experience in area of sales forecasting, demand planning, and S&OP.
- Statistical modeling
- Direct experience in forecasting applications
- 5+ years of relevant or related industry experience preferred.
TECHNICAL KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS
- Strong analytical skills
- Expertise Level with Excel
- Strong oral and written communication skills (executive-level interactions)
- Basic understanding of P&L and financial acumen
- Proficient in PowerPoint/Databases (e.g., SAP-related BI/BW applications)
Years of Experience:5-7 Years Experience
- GROWTH MINDSET: Demonstrates curiosity. Welcomes failure as a learning opportunity.
- SMART RISK: Makes bold decisions/recommendations.
- EXTERNALLY FOCUSED: Understands the upstream and downstream implications of his/her work. Tracks and shares external trends, best practices or ideas.
- PERFORMANCE DRIVEN AND ACCOUNTABLE: Has high performance standards. Outperforms her/his peers.
- FAST/AGILE: Removes barriers to move faster. Experiments and adapts. Thrives under pressure and fast pace.
- EMPOWERED: Brings solutions instead of problems. Challenges the status quo. Has the courage to take an unpopular stance.